Brussels, Belgium, August 5, 2020: The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) predicted in the latest offshore wind power report that by 2030, the global installed capacity of offshore wind power will rise from the current 29.1 GW to 234 GW. Become the most important market, and Europe can still maintain strong growth momentum.
GWEC’s "2020 Global Offshore Wind Power Report" contains the latest data and market forecasts, comprehensively analyzes the global offshore wind power industry, introduces the situation of emerging markets, and looks forward to the global offshore wind power market in 2030. There are also many case studies in the report, the topics include supporting policies, industrial development and job creation, offshore wind power grid integration, cost reduction, supply chain, health and safety, etc.
The "Report" stated that in the first half of 2020, China's newly installed offshore wind power capacity will reach more than 70% of the newly installed capacity of offshore wind power in Asia. The "Report" predicts that due to the exponential growth in the Asia-Pacific region and the continued strong growth in Europe, by 2030, the global installed offshore wind power capacity will surge from 29.1GW at the end of 2019 to more than 234GW. At that time, China is expected to surpass the United Kingdom to become the country with the largest cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in the world.
In terms of the impact of the epidemic, the "Report" believes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has affected the wind power supply chain and the speed of project construction. The estimated installed wind power capacity in 2020 after the outbreak is 19% lower than the forecast before the outbreak. At the same time, the "Report" believes that due to the delay of the epidemic, the scale of wind power installed capacity will rebound in 2021.
In terms of installed capacity, the report stated that the global offshore wind power installed capacity increased by 6.1GW in 2019, and the global cumulative installed capacity reached 29.1GW. In 2019, China's newly installed capacity ranked first in the world for the second consecutive year, reaching a record 2.4GW. Britain and Germany followed closely behind with 1.8GW and 1.1GW respectively. In terms of cumulative installed capacity in 2019, the United Kingdom remained the highest (9.7GW), followed by Germany (7.5GW), China (6.8GW, excluding statistics from Taiwan) and Denmark (1.7GW).
In terms of the growth rate of the offshore wind power market, since 2013, the global offshore wind power market has grown by an average of 24% per year. As of the end of 2019, Europe is still the largest offshore wind power market, accounting for 75% of the world's total wind power installed capacity. In the future, the region will remain the focus of the growth of the global offshore wind power industry, and will be led by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Denmark, Poland and other countries to reach the ambitious 450GW installed capacity target in 2050.
In terms of cost reduction for offshore wind power, the results of the third round of CID allocation in the UK announced in September 2019 showed that the execution price reached a record low, which was about 30% lower than the 2017 auction price. In the Netherlands, Vattenfall obtained the qualification to develop offshore wind power projects with a total generating capacity of 760 MW in July 2019, and the electricity price is only the market price without electricity price subsidies. These results prove that offshore wind power can reduce costs and increase efficiency through technological innovation. Over the past decade, offshore wind power costs have fallen by 50%.
Regarding the development of China’s offshore wind power market, the “Report” believes that the current price of coal-fired power plants in China’s coastal provinces is between 0.39-0.45 yuan/Wh, which is at least 30% lower than the current offshore wind power price. Offshore wind power needs to be further reduced cost. The national subsidy of offshore wind power may force wind power projects to "rush to install" and achieve grid connection earlier than expected.
In terms of the single-unit scale of offshore wind turbines, the "Report" believes that large megawatt units are the inevitable direction of offshore wind turbine development. In 2020, the average single-unit scale of offshore wind turbines will be 6.5MW; in 2025, the average single-unit scale of offshore wind turbines will reach 10-12MW. Domestic and foreign wind power manufacturers are racing to build large megawatt wind turbines. At present, the largest wind turbine manufacturer in foreign countries with actual installed single-machine is General Electric (12MW), and the largest wind turbine manufacturer with no actual installed single-machine is Siemens Gamesa (14MW); the domestic largest-scale wind turbine manufacturer with actual installed single-machine is Dongfang Electric (10MW), the largest wind turbine manufacturer that has not yet actually installed a single machine is Mingyang Intelligent (11MW); in terms of the driving mode of the offshore wind turbine wind turbine, the "report" claims that in the foreign high-speed gear drive wind turbine market, Senvion is the current king. The stand-alone scale reaches 6MW; in the medium-speed gear drive wind turbine market and the floating offshore wind turbine market, the Mitsubishi-Vestas stand-alone scale reaches 10MW and 8MW respectively; in the direct drive wind turbine market, Siemens Gamesa 14-15MW wind turbines dominate the group.
In the domestic high-speed gear-driven fan market, although Sinovel Wind Power and United Power have a relatively large single unit (6MW), they have been launched for nearly 8 years and are at a disadvantage in the LCOE competition; the latest high-speed gear-driven fan is provided by Envision Energy;In the medium-speed gear drive wind turbine market, Mingyang Smart’s 8MW wind turbines have been installed, and 10MW and 11MW wind turbines have been released; in the direct drive wind turbine market, Dongfang Electric’s 10MW wind turbines have been installed.